Turk Tuborg 2016 Full Year Results May 11, 2017

Turk Tuborg 2016 Full Year Results May 11, 2017

Turk Tuborg reported 2016 results. The company’s consolidated net sales increased by 29.6% from TRY742.68 million in 2015 to TRY962.7 million in 2016. ASP increases were the main driver of revenue growth as ASP per hectoliter (hl) increased by 30.9% from TRY245.12 in 2015 to TRY320.92 in 2016, while volume decreased by 1.0% from 3.03 million hectoliters (mhl) in 2015 to 3.00 million hectoliters in 2016. Despite the ASP increase and the volume decrease, Turk Tuborg still gained share from Anadolu Efes. Its volume share increased from 31.4% to 33.3% and its market share increased from 33.3% to 40.1%. Turk Tuborg and Anadolu control over 99% of the market so any share gain by one is at the expense of the other.

 

The table illustrates volume, volume share within Turkey, ASP, and market share within Turkey from 2008 to 2016. Since 2008, Turk Tuborg’s volume grew by 13.2% per annum, Anadolu’s volume decreased by 4.3% per annum, and the overall industry volume decline by -0.9% per annum. Since 2008, Turk Tuborg’s ASP increased by 9.9% per annum, Anadolu’s ASP increased by 7.0% per annum, and the overall industry ASP increased by 8.4% per annum.

 

In our initiation report, we believed Turk Tuborg’s product innovation and focused operations along with Anadolu Efes debt load is driving Turk Tuborg’s share gains.

 

In 2016, Turk Tuborg launched Tuborg Amber, the first and only beer in amber category of Turkey illustrating the company’s continued focus on product innovation. Anadolu continues to have operations all over Europe while Turk Tuborg remains focused on Turkey. Anadolu’s extended operations decrease the importance of Turkey on overall operations leading to less management attention. It also adds diseconomies of scale associated with administrating all the different entities. Anadolu improved its financial position to 3.6 times operating profit but capex is lower than depreciation meaning the company is unable to even maintain its current asset base, never mind spending on growth, while, Turk Tuborg grew and modernized its facilities.

 

Since 2011, Turk Tuborg’s average capex to depreciation ratio is 185% compared to Anadolu Efes’s average capex to depreciation ratio of 114%. The capex allowed it to modernize its facilities decreasing the average age of assets from 18.8 years in 2011 to 7.4 years almost on par with Anadolu Efes.

 

Despite Anadolu’s debt load, economies of scale persist. Distribution is crucial as over 50% of Turkish beer sales are through a two-way distribution system where bottles and kegs are returned. Advertising is another important fixed cost that benefits the largest players. These costs are included in the selling expense line on both companies’ income statements. Anadolu does not report Turkish beer expenses but assuming a similar split in operating expenses between administrative and selling expenses, the company’s selling expense can be determined.

 

Despite Anadolu spending almost three times as much on distribution and marketing, Turk Tuborg has made significant share gains. The company seems to be much more efficient with a much better feel for the desires of Turkish customers. Turk Tuborg’s superior management will be very difficult for Anadolu to overcome. Can Anadolu increase its marketing and distribution expense to win back share? The recent past would suggest increasing spending would not do much good. It is also particularly difficult when the company’s debt load is on the higher side. The restrictions on alcohol promotions and advertisements as well as the restrictions on alcohol producers sponsoring events greatly reduces the ability of increased marketing expenses.

 

Turk Tuborg’s saw its gross profit increase by 34.3% and its gross margin expand by 197 bps. Despite, the company increasing its ASP at an average annual rate of 9.9% since 2008, its gross margin has expanded by over 2675 basis points pointing to pricing power. Over the same period, industry volume declined by 0.9% strengthening the case of pricing power.

 

Administrative expenses increased in line with revenue 27.7% at remaining at roughly 5.0% of sales, while selling expenses increased by 26.0% decreasing slightly as a percentage of sales from 25.5% of sales to 24.7% of sales.

 

Operating profit increased by 44.3% from TRY180.78 million in 2015 to TRY260.85 million in 2016. The company’s working capital is negative at –TRY64 million and fixed capital turnover remained roughly the same at 2.82 times. The company’s capital efficiency declined slightly to 3.47 times. Overall, ROIC decreased slightly from 76.1% to 75.2%.

 

Turk Tuborg continues to perform extremely well growing at a fast pace, taking a significant amount of share, and remaining very profitable with an ROIC of 75.2%.  Given the poor liquidity in the company’s stock and political concerns, Turk Tuborg trades on a NOPAT yield of 7.4% with the potential for continued ASP increases of at least 5% per year leading to expected return of at least 12.5% and potentially more. Our weekly commentary dated 12/13/16-12/19/16, looked at acquisition multiples in the beer industry since 1999 and over the last twelve months. The average transaction multiple was 11.7 times EV/EBITDA and 11.5 times EV/EBITDA, respectively.  Assuming a multiple of 12 times EV/EBITDA, Turk Tuborg has 43% upside.

 

The barriers to entry within the Turkish beer industry are extremely strong, with Turk Tuborg and Anadolu maintaining over 99% of the market for over a decade, eliminating any concerns over competitive risks. Additionally, restrictions on alcohol promotions and advertising reduces the risk of increased competitive rivalry. The company has a net cash position at 1.2 times the company’s 2016 operating profit eliminating potential financial risk. The biggest risk is political as Erdogan consolidates his power in Turkey. The consolidation of power eliminates checks and balances typically seen in democracy and Erdogan’s conservative nature may lead to continued attempt to stifle the industry. The government continues to increase excise taxes in attempt to stamp out drinking. The current consumption tax rate on beer is 63%. In 2013, the Turkish government imposing a series of new alcohol restrictions including banning shops from selling alcohol from 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. and prohibited all forms of advertising and promotion of alcohol. Alcohol producers are also barred from sponsoring events, and television broadcasters were required to blur images of alcohol in movies, soap operas and music videos. In a 2010 survey commissioned by the Health Ministry, Ankara’s Hacettepe University found that only 23% of Turkish men and 4% of Turkish women drank alcohol so there may be a tolerance for prohibition. Turkish annual alcohol consumption is the lowest in Europe at 1.55 liters per capita compared to over 10 liters in most European countries.

 

Despite the company’s strong operating performance, strong competitive position, net cash position, and slightly cheap valuation, growth is bound to slow as ASP increase are the driver of growth with industry volumes declining at 1.0% per year. The increasing consolidation of power by Erdogan is worrisome for the industry leading us to decrease our position size to 2.0% as long as the price is above TRY9.00.

 

 

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